Document Type : Science - Research (International Relation)

Authors

• Fatemeh Mahrough ¹
• Aboulqasem Shahriari ²
• Zahra Rezghi ³

¹ Assistant Professor of Political Science (International Relationes), Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Politics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, I.R.Iran.

² Ph.D in Irans Issues, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, I.R.Iran.

³ Master's student in International Relations, Department of Faculty of Law and Politics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, I.R.Iran.

Abstract

The outbreak of the Al-Aqsa storm operation on October 7, 2023, represents an emergent and unprecedented military action in the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict and has publicized more attention to the Palestinian crisis. the need to investigate its causes can lead to a more accurate insight to control the influencing variables. This article seeks to address what are the causes and drivers of the October 7 Gaza war? The current research, using Michael Brecher's comprehensive crisis model, focused on trigger/termination stage, seeks to combine structure and process in the analysis of this crisis. The research methodology is positivist, and the nature of the method is quantitative. the data analysis was also done using MICMAC (Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification) structural analysis based on comparing the hierarchy of issues in the various classifications (direct, indirect and potential), which is a rich source of information to determine the major wildcards of a specific domain. Due to the analytical nature of the MICMAC, it is avoided to present a hypothesis and attention is directed to the output of the software to understand the drivers and variables. The findings of the research after analyzing the data show that according to the most effective variables, i.e. the West's logistic economic support for Israel, the lack of representation of the Palestinian Authority by the Palestinian people and the compromise tendencies of this government, it seems that the change in the values ​​of these variables can affect other variables and provide the basis for crisis control.

Keywords

• Al-Aqsa Storm
• Gaza war
• International crises
• Michael Brecher
• MICMAC
• Palestine crisis

Main Subjects

• International Relation